Monday, March 24, 2008

Divorce

It's said that 46% of marriages in the UAE end in divorce. I'm not confident in that number. Like many numbers thrown around in the UAE it's not clear what the statistical foundation is, or even what it is purporting to measure.

According to Justin Wolfers, for first marriages of US women married 1985 to 1989, 33.4% of these ended before the 15th anniversary. And some marriages end because of death not divorce.

More:
the divorce rate in the United States is currently at its lowest level in twenty-five years, and has fallen nearly every year since 1979. The number of divorces per thousand marriages has now fallen by 27 percent since the peak in 1979. The latest data suggest that the divorce rate for 2007 will be even lower still. And our own analysis of the stability of marriages suggests that those married in the 1990’s appear to be less likely to divorce than those married in the 1980’s, who in turn are less likely to divorce than those married in the 1970’s. As such, the divorce rate seems likely to continue to decline for some time yet.
Surprised that the divorce rate in the US is lower than the UAE? I don't doubt that the divorce rate in the UAE is high, but there's no way to determine whether is that high, short of having better data on the UAE. Poor data invites theoretical speculation. Is the divorce rate in the UAE high because it's affordable? Because the matching process is poor? Because families interfere?

One take away from this comparison is that the US isn't as morally inferior to the UAE as it might appear. But do note that falling divorce rates in the US are attributed to falling marriage rates, and marriage at a later age. Those most likely to divorce have become less likely to marry. And there are more couples enjoying the benefits of marriage before marriage - whether or not they ever marry.

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4 Comments:

Blogger don_veto said...

One possible reason for the higher divorece rate is that in traditional arab countries, marriages are family arranged based on lineage, wealth, etc. and not on mutual attraction and compatibility. The end result would be divorce in lots of cases.

9:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

also many gcc arabs marry a woman for one or two nights and then divorce her, maybe so that the sex is halal and not actually prostitution.

10:10 PM  
Anonymous Viagra Online said...

A 46 percent of marriages ending in divorce is not an exaggerated number, I even believe that it could be less.

9:13 PM  
Anonymous www.natalia.biz said...

This cannot truly work, I believe so.

12:45 PM  

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