Cognitive dissonance will have to be reassessed
It ain't necessarily so:
Teaching Bayes Rule to MBA students a few years back I did what I thought was a rather good job of explaining to them the Monty Hall Problem. (Given the design of the problem, once you choose any door there is a two thirds chance that Monty is constrained and shows you what is behind one of the other doors because the prize is behind the door he did not reveal; you should switch to the door he did not reveal.) They were convinced I had lost my mind. At least I found out they were alive.
The Monty Hall Problem has struck again, and this time it’s not merely embarrassing mathematicians. If the calculations of a Yale economist are correct, there’s a sneaky logical fallacy in some of the most famous experiments in psychology.Read it all here.
The economist, M. Keith Chen, has challenged research into cognitive dissonance, including the 1956 experiment that first identified a remarkable ability of people to rationalize their choices.
Teaching Bayes Rule to MBA students a few years back I did what I thought was a rather good job of explaining to them the Monty Hall Problem. (Given the design of the problem, once you choose any door there is a two thirds chance that Monty is constrained and shows you what is behind one of the other doors because the prize is behind the door he did not reveal; you should switch to the door he did not reveal.) They were convinced I had lost my mind. At least I found out they were alive.
Labels: Monty Hall
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home