2nd edition of the Arab Social Media Report

The second edition of the Arab Social Media Report by the Dubai School of Government has been released to the media. Coincidentally, the first edition of the quarterly report was issued in January just as the Arab Spring was breaking.

The Nation reports:

The most popular Twitter hashtags in the Arab region in the first three months of this year were “Egypt”, “Jan25”, “Libya”, “Bahrain” and “protest”. Nearly 9 in 10 Egyptians and Tunisians surveyed in March said they were using Facebook to organise protests or spread awareness about them. All but one of the protests called for on Facebook ended up coming to life on the streets.

These and other findings from the newly released second edition of the Arab Social Media Report by the Dubai School of Government give empirical heft to the conventional wisdom that Facebook and Twitter abetted if not enabled the historic region-wide uprisings of early 2011.

...

The authorities’ efforts to block out information, the report said, ended up “spurring people to be more active, decisive and to find ways to be more creative about communicating and organising”.

Let me know if you have the link to the second edition.

Another UAE petition for political rights

All I see on it so far is this tweeter's twitter stream: http://twitter.com/#!/kshaheen

UAE art shows coincide with Arab Spring

The Economist:

The fair’s patron is Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai. In advance of his arrival, a member of his entourage visited every booth to make sure that nothing might cause offence. The censor proved to be more tolerant this year than last, objecting to just one work rather than three.

Yet the lone offender said much about UAE sensitivities. Installed on the stand of the Parisian Galerie Hussenot, “The Lost Springs” by Mounir Fatmi consisted of a row of national flags. Whereas the Tunisian and Egyptian flags were held up by brooms, the other Middle Eastern flags, including those of the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Bahrain, were hung on the wall. The sculpture was wonderfully puzzling. Should old regimes be brushed away? Will the new democracies be cleaner? Despite the ambiguity, Galerie Hussenot was instructed to remove the brooms every time a dignitary walked past.

Up the dusty highway, the Sharjah Biennial also exhibited a range of different political work. The star of the show and a winner of the Sharjah Biennial prize was Imran Qureshi, an artist based in Lahore. “Blessings Upon the Land of My Love”, a floor painting, evoked the violence of Pakistan’s troubled parliamentary republic. In a large brick-lined courtyard, Mr Qureshi created a crime scene—at once both horrifying and beautiful—in which red paint was used to look like pooling blood or life-affirming foliage. “The role of art is not miraculously to right all the wrongs of the world,” said Suzanne Cotter, one of the biennial’s curators. “It is about recognising the world’s complexity.”

A handful of artists who weren’t exhibiting in the biennial complicated its official opening by distributing flyers bearing the names of the people killed in Bahrain. Public protest is illegal in the UAE but the activists (none of whom was an Emirati) claimed it was an artwork. The local police arrested them before they could make much of an impact. They were questioned for half a day before being released.

Read the rest.

Jon Stewart nails it

I just want to know -- how can a comedian's political analysis be so much clearer than what you read and see elsewhere?

The Daily Show - America at Not-War - Obama's Pragmatic Foreign Policy Decisions
Tags: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

And look at this very helpful debate on Libya. Again, so much better than what passes for analysis elsewhere.

The Daily Show - Mansour O. El-Kikhia
Tags: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

I happen to believe it's right to intervene in Libya. But I've not worked backwards to the reasons why it's right.

The man has a point.

Is this any way to run a countrybusiness?

An Emirati man has protested that the developer of the world's tallest tower, Burj Khalifa, refused to let him trek the stairs for charity, while allowing the ‘French spiderman' to climb.

Jalal Jamal Bin Theniyah, 25, said he has been climbing the city's various towers, using the stairs, to raise money for charity and bring the issue of people with special needs to the forefront.

Bin Theniyah raised his case after Gulf News reported that Alain Robert, dubbed the French Spiderman, was set to climb Burj Khalifa on Monday for the opening of the Higher Colleges of Technology's (HCT) 10th Education Without Borders (EWB) Conference.

Read the rest.

This strikes me as a good example of the general sense that Emiratis have been made strangers in their own land.

Human rights, human dignity and Egypt's transition

One of the big questions for the future of Egypt is how to change the culture of police enforcement, security agencies and the army when it comes to accountability, respect of the rule of law, human rights practice and more generally attitudes towards public freedoms. It was always unrealistic to expect to change this overnight, and there are several problems to tackle — to start with...

That's Issandr El Amrani at The Arabist.

Yes, Egypt needs a transformation in attitude towards human rights. But it also need a transformation in attitude toward human dignity. Deidre McCloskey asks what accounts for economic growth? She finds current explanations wanting. Her answer: What changed were habits of the lip. It’s not a “rise of the bourgeoisie,” but a rise in other people’s opinion of the bourgeoisie that makes for economic growth — as it is now doing in China and India. When people treat the marketeers and inventors as having some dignity and liberty, innovation takes hold. It was so to speak a shift in “constitutional political economy,” as James Buchanan puts the point. People agreed on the meta-rule of letting the economy go where it will. This contrasted with the earlier mentality, still admired on the left, that treats each act of innovation as an occasion to go looking for its victims. Victims there were, but they were greatly outnumbered by winners. It was ideas, not matter, that made the winners, and brought our ancestors from $3 to over $100 a day.

Qatar lowest on the shoe throwing index

Slate:

Unlike its neighbors, the tiny, oil-rich Gulf nation of Qatar has shown no signs of tumult, ranking last in the Economist's "shoe-thrower's index" of Arab unrest. Why has Qatar remained completely peaceful?

Money, and a small population. The revolutions in nearby countries, like Egypt, Yemen, and Oman, have been fueled largely by economic grievances like unemployment and rising food prices. Qatar, which has a population of around 1.5 million, approximately 200,000 of whom are Qatari citizens, has an unemployment rate of half a percent. Its GDP per capita of $145,300 is the highest in the world and its 2010 growth rate was 19.4 percent, also ranking it No. 1 in 2010.

About the UAE, Slate says,

Qatar can be most aptly compared to the United Arab Emirates, which is also majority Sunni and flush with oil money. But Qatar's population is less diverse and much smaller than that of the UAE, which has recently seen some unrest: There were small protests from migrant laborers in January, and a Facebook page promises protests in the regionon March 25. A cadre of intellectuals has also petitioned the government to hold open elections.

Facebook pages can come from anywhere. If you follow the link that one looks quite inactive. Did a March 25 protest happen? If it did it didn't make a blip on the news radar.

Arab spring: an interactive timeline of Middle East protests

From Guardian, a timeline of the Arab democracy movement events. Countries compared side-by-side over time. Well worth a click.

From Missouri to Tripoli and back

In 25 hours.



B-2 Stealth Bomber returning to Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo. after missions to Libya.

My question is, why is the US military providing this video? Several answers come to mind. To show the enemy your capability. Recruiting. Others?

More here from the Defense Video & Imagery System.

The Saudi Women Revolution Statement

Link.

What's with the Arab League?

What's with the on again - off again support by the Arab League for the UN's response to Gaddafi?

I asked two tweeters, and here are their replies:

@SultanAlQassemi What's going on with Arab League? #Libya
34 minutes ago
in reply to @uaeeconomist ↑

@SultanAlQassemi
Sultan Al Qassemi
@uaeeconomist it's now a tool in the hands of Amr Moussa
34 minutes ago via web
__________

@Tripolitanian What Arab countries are going to join coalition? Do you agree with Arab League's concerns? #Libya
38 minutes ago
in reply to @uaeeconomist ↑

@Tripolitanian
Libyan
@uaeeconomist UAE&Qatar r in the coalition - Arab league's concerns were irresponsible, it's too early 2 tell if there were civ casualties
36 minutes ago via web
_________

This twitter thing is starting to make sense to me as a communications tool.

These answers help inform the read of this report in the Washington Post:

Arab League condemns broad bombing campaign in Libya

The Arab League secretary general, Amr Moussa, deplored the broad scope of the U.S.-European bombing campaign in Libya on Sunday and said he would call a new league meeting to reconsider Arab approval of the Western military intervention.

Moussa said the Arab League’s approval of a no-fly zone on March 12 was based on a desire to prevent Moammar Gaddafi’s air force from attacking civilians and was not designed to embrace the intense bombing and missile attacks—including on Tripoli, the capital, and on Libyan ground forces—that have filled Arab television screens for the last two days.

“What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone,” he said in a statement on the official Middle East News Agency. “And what we want is the protection of civilians and not the shelling of more civilians.”

Moussa’s declaration suggested some of the 22 Arab League members were taken aback by what they have seen and wanted to modify their approval lest they be perceived as accepting outright Western military intervention in Libya. Although the eccentric Gaddafi is widely looked down on in the Arab world, Middle Eastern leaders and their peoples traditionally have risen up in emotional protest at the first sign of Western intervention.

UAE protests rumor tweet

@habibahamid Back at work in the UAE, with rumours of a protest this Friday circulating. Very vague, nondescript so far, unclear what the foci might be
1 hour ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply

Paragraph of the day

Regarding the division between the US and Saudi Arabia over Bahrain:

The crackup was predicted by a top UAE sheik in a February meeting with two visiting former U.S. officials. According to notes made during the conversation, the UAE official said: “We and the Saudis will not accept a Shiite government in Bahrain. And if your president says to the Khalifas what he said to Mubarak [to leave office], it will cause a break in our relationship with the U.S.” The UAE official warned that Gulf nations were “looking East” — to China, India and Turkey — for alternative security assistance.

Read, in the Washington Post.

Torture in Egypt continues

Here are just two examples.

The Washington Post

Samira Ibrahim Mohamed is a 25-year-old woman from Upper Egypt. She came from her home more than eight hours away in January to join in the protests in Tahrir Square. Like many others, she has stayed in Cairo, occasionally returning to camp out in the square as a reminder of the democratic promises that the military and remnants of the old regime have made. She was in the square on the afternoon of March 9 when members of the army and men in plainclothes attacked the demonstrators, arbitrarily arresting people on sight. Samira was one of the protesters who was dragged away from Tahrir that afternoon.

Soldiers beat and kicked her. They tore her headscarf from her. And then, in what was as bizarre as it was shocking, they took her and other peaceful demonstrators to the famed Egyptian museum on the north side of the square — to be tortured.

Samira was handcuffed to a wall in the museum complex. For nearly seven hours — almost every five minutes, she said — Samira was electrocuted with a stun gun. Her torturers would sometimes splash water on her and others to make the shocks more painful. The electrical jolts were applied to her legs, shoulders and stomach. She pleaded with the soldier to stop. Repeating what the demonstrators had chanted in Tahrir Square, she said, “I begged them. I said, ‘You are my brothers. The army and the people are one.’” Her tormentor replied, “No, the military is above the nation. And you deserve this.”

At around 11 p.m., Samira and others were moved to one of the main military prisons. She would remain there for three more days. Over those days, the abuse, insults and intimidation continued. They spit on her. All of her belongings were stolen. She was given kerosene-soaked bread for food. But the most humiliating moment was when they first brought her into the prison. She and 10 other women arrested in the square were stripped and forcibly examined to determine whether they were virgins. She had been told that any woman found not to be a virgin would have prostitution added to her charges.

NPR

Without warning, the army stormed the square, ripping down tents and arresting more than 100 people, including Essam.

He says men in army uniforms dragged him to the Egyptian National Museum, which had become a security headquarters.

He says the men took him to a courtyard, stripped him to his shorts, and beat him.

An interpreter rendering Essam's Arabic into English says, "there was a soldier who jumped up in the air and (came) down on his head."

Essam, also through the interpreter, says the men beat him with a stick and a metal rod, and applied electricity "all over his body."

By the time the army released him, he could barely walk.

He says he still believes that there are honest people who will investigate what happened.

Revised: When what's not said is as important as what is said

[I may have missed it, but I believe The National's article has been revised to emphasize that there is some dissatisfaction with indirect elections by an electoral college. See insert below.]

The Abu Dhabi owned The National reports:

The UAE announced today it would hold nationwide elections for the Federal National Council on September 24.

The elections, in which a minimum of 12,000 Emiratis will participate as members of the electoral college, will see half the members of the FNC elected by vote.

The election announcement, which came in a statement by the National Election Committee, follows a decision to triple the minimum number of Emiratis allowed to vote and the release of updated election guidelines by the NEC.

This will be the second election ever for the FNC, the country's advisory quasi-parliament.

The other half of FNC members are appointed by the rulers of each emirate.

So the number of with a vote has tripled. Let's do some more math. The UAE reports a population of 8 million. As much as 20% of those may be Emirati citizens. Compared to 12,000? And relative to the dilution due to giving the rulers choice of half the FNC membership? (Not to mention that the rulers also choose the 12,000.)

Omitted from the report is the recent call for direct elections. That's not responsible journalism. But that's not something you can blame the journalist for.

Inserted into my original post. I either missed or it's been been added to The National's report:

Dr al Muazzin, who has called for oversight committees to ensure that all families are represented as voters, said: “Our only concern is that there must be transparency in choosing the names for the electoral colleges.”

A decree last month tripled the minimum size of the electoral colleges in each emirate, which elect members to the FNC. Now at least 12,000 Emiratis will take part in the elections. There is no maximum number of electoral college members.

Nevertheless, several former FNC members have called for all Emiratis to be allowed to vote, and a petition posted online last week and signed by 133 Emiratis called for direct and universal elections for the FNC and full legislative powers to the council. Currently the FNC cannot initiate legislation.

That's all of interest. What I find it especially interesting is call that all families be represented. I suppose he means families as in tribes. Would that be equal representation? or proportional?

Amir Taheri writes:

What we see in the greater Mideast is a political upheaval, not an economic revolt. People are fed up with being treated as subjects of a pharaoh, sultan, emir, sheik or "supreme guide." They want a new relationship with their governments, based on respect for the citizen.

Are citizens in the UAE so comfortable with the paternalistic system that they don't want to rock the boat and risk losing that comfort?

Hundreds of protesters in Bahrain injured by shotgun blasts and clubs

King announces statement of emergency: Other Gulf leaders have urged Bahrain’s king not to give ground, fearing that gains by

Bahrain’s Shiite Muslims could offer a window for Iran to expand its influence on the Arab side of the Gulf. There are also worries that political concessions could embolden more protests against their own regimes, which have already confronted pro-reform cries in Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Analysis of military tactics in Libya

Talk of the Nation:

NEAL CONAN, host: ... we begin with George Joffe at the BBC studios in Cambridge, where he's a research fellow at the Centre for International Studies. ...

CONAN: And is the situation for the rebels becoming critical?

Mr. JOFFE: I don't think it's critical yet. It's becoming serious. That is to say, they've lost control of two of the towns in the Gulf of Sirt. There are still two towns on the way to Benghazi, and they're some way away from the city, and there they're still fighting to make sure that the forces loyal to Colonel Gadhafi can't break through.

And even if those forces do break through, they're running into problems, too. First of all, their lines of communication are getting very stretched. And secondly, their numbers apparently aren't very large.

So whether they can really attack Benghazi, a town of over a million people, seems to me rather doubtful.

CONAN: Yet air attacks are continuing in that direction.

Mr. JOFFE: That's certainly true. Air attacks are continuing. They're being used against small towns on the way, along the coast up towards Benghazi, but whether again they can be used effectively in Benghazi itself to destroy the resistance, I wonder.

CONAN: And when you talk about lines of communication, this is not just radio contact, but food, fuel - in particular fuel.

Mr. JOFFE: It's the whole logistics chain that any army requires to keep itself moving. And that's getting longer and longer. Distances in Libya are very long indeed, and indeed when the forces get to Agedabia, if indeed they do, then they've got a very difficult choice to make.

They could travel due east and try and reach Tobruk and the Egyptian border, thereby isolating Benghazi, or they could try and attack Benghazi itself. In either case, the lines of communication will get even longer, they'll become more vulnerable, and of course, they're approaching the rebel stronghold, Benghazi, and therefore they may well find themselves facing a resistance that they can't overcome.

CONAN: What kind of forces have the rebels been able to organize?

Mr. JOFFE: Well, the rebels certainly have irregular forces. They've been recruiting very heavily inside Benghazi itself. They have some organized, regular Libyan army forces that defected to them in the very early days of the rebellion.

And amongst those, there appear to be some elite troops. They were used recently in Mersa Brega to force the Libyan army out. And they therefore are quite well-prepared.

What they lack, of course, is air power and apparently heavy artillery, too, and that's going to put them at a disadvantage. But again, in terms of house-to-house fighting inside a major city, that disadvantage may be minimized.

CONAN: Yet house-to-house fighting in a major city, that can also be a very bloody operation.

Mr. JOFFE: Oh, undoubtedly. I think one has to assume that any operation involving Libya's supporting Colonel Gadhafi is going to be a very bloody operation indeed, and the use of air power makes it more so. So I don't think we should be under any illusions but that the continuation of this struggle is going to cost many, many lives.

CONAN: And the pro-government forces, are these conventionally organized armored brigades?

Mr. JOFFE: Yes, they are. They are conventional forces as far as one knows, together with paramilitary groups, partly from Colonel Gadhafi's tribal territories but particularly mercenaries that have been recruited over some considerable period of time, I think, in Tripolitania.

So they represent a threat, but their real effectiveness as a fighting force we don't really know. We only know that their armaments are superior.

CONAN: Tripolitania the western part of Libya, Cyrenaica the eastern part of Libya and the home of the rebellion, and obviously students of the Second World War and the campaigns in North Africa remember places like Tobruk very, very well and decisions like: Do you cut straight across east? And in the case of General Rommel - or do you cut straight across west in the case of General Montgomery.

Mr. JOFFE: That's quite correct. And, indeed, the memory of those campaigns still remains amongst the people of Cyrenaica, as do certain physical remnants, as well. There are very large minefields still along the Egyptian-Libyan border, and these regularly cost people's lives as they travel through the desert.

So in a sense, the Second World War is there as a reminder of what is to come and what has already occurred.

I've taken a big quote, but there's more. Read (or listen) here.

Gulf states send force to Bahrain following protests

I said recently the Saudi-Bahrain causeway was built with this in mind, but I didn't expect to be right so soon. This, to me, is very surprising. Would it happen if it wasn't royalty putting up a common front?

The BBC:

Troops from a number of Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have arrived in Bahrain in response to a request from the small Gulf kingdom, officials say.
...
A Saudi official said about 1,000 Saudi Arabian troops arrived in Bahrain early on Monday.

The troops are part of a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) deployment, a six-nation regional grouping which includes Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

It is believed they are intended to guard key facilities such as oil and gas installations and financial institutions.

I wonder if the "guarding" is both literal and metaphorical. Market watchers are concerned about the possibility of protests in Saudi Arabia.

Business Intelligence - Middle East / Stratfor:

Troops from the United Arab Emirates are reportedly expected to arrive March 14. Al Arabiya reported that Saudi forces have already entered Bahrain, but these claims have yet to be officially confirmed by the Bahraini regime.
...
The ongoing tensions are exacerbated by the split between Bahrain’s Shiite movement, which became clearer during protests on March 11. The more hard-line faction of the Shiite movement, led by the Wafa and Haq blocs, has been increasing the unrest on the streets in the hopes of stalling the talks between the Shiite Al Wefaq-led coalition’s negotiations with the regime.
...
...If Bahrain indeed has requested Saudi intervention this time, the implication is that the Bahraini military is not confident in its ability to contain the unrest now.

Riyadh’s decision to send forces to Manama could be taken for this reason, since wider spread of Shiite unrest from Bahrain to Saudi Arabia would aggravate the already existing protests among Saudi Arabia’s own Shiite population. Saudi military intervention in Bahrain is also not unprecedented; Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain in 1994 when Riyadh determined that Shiite unrest threatened the al-Khalifa regime.

The regional implications of the unrest in Bahrain were underscored when U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Manama on March 12 and urged the Bahraini regime to implement bold reforms....

Dubai's Gulf News has a brief Reuters report on the troop deployment. Abu Dhabi's The National has picked up a more complete report from Agence France-Presse although the story is headlined Saudi troops 'enter Bahrain'.
The message seems to be, "don't try this at home".

Does this mean the GCC won't be able to help with a no-fly-zone over Libya?

Did Bahrain call in the GCC because it needed more firepower, or because needed foreign troops willing to fire because they aren't their own people? It's a scary thought, but I can't believe the GCC troops would use force unless their own lives are threatened.

Another thought -- I'm pretty that the bulk of the UAE armed forces are not Emiratis. That's partly because the work is not the kind Emiratis would accept, and partly because the rulers like it that way for a variety of reasons.

Bahrain deaths

A roundup.

Violence Re-Emerges in Bahrain - WSJ

Clashes between demonstrators and progovernment loyalists left hundreds injured in Bahrain on Friday, in the worst outbreak of violence here since the military was ordered off the streets nearly three weeks ago.

Conflicting reports centered on whether police had used rubber bullets to disperse protesters, something the government vehemently denied.

The violence came hours before U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates paid a surprise visit Friday to Bahrain in a show of support for the island kingdom's royal family. ...
Despite its clear backing for the ruling family, the Obama administration has launched an investigation into the role of Bahraini security forces in previous violent crackdowns, part of a broader reassessment of U.S. security assistance and big-ticket arms sales to long-time Arab allies caught up in a wave of popular revolts.

Hundreds injured during clashes between rival groups in Bahrain - CNN

Hundreds of people were injured in Bahrain Friday, when rival groups clashed over an attempted march in the town of Riffa, a residential area where the ruling Al-Khalifa family lives. The national health ministry said 774 people were injured and 107 were hospitalized in the wake of the fighting.

Anti-government demonstrators in Riffa had planned a march. A crowd numbering roughly 8,000 set off on the march, according to Bahrain's ambassador to the United States. But they were met by hundreds of people carrying swords, hatchets, metal pieces, cricket instruments and pieces of wood with nails hammered into them. The opposing group had already taken up positions in an effort to stop the planned march.

Gates Visits Bahrain Amid Huge Protests - NYT

Editorial in The National offers advice to Egyptians

The National:

Recent clashes in Cairo have shown that removing a mindset can be more difficult than removing a regime ."Go home and wash dishes!" men shouted as women marched this week in Tahrir Square to celebrate International Women's Day. The division was a stark departure from the solidarity between genders as they stood by side, calling for Hosni Mubarak to step down just weeks ago.

Likewise, fighting between Christian Copts and Muslims on Tuesday was a sad reminder that Egypt is still fraught with dangerous religious tension. Last month Copts surrounded Muslims to protect them as they prayed and Muslims did the same for Copts as they celebrated Sunday Mass.

The spirit of those recent days need not be forgotten. In fact, there is an urgent need to rekindle those feelings of unity as the hard work of rebuilding Egypt's institutions begins. Bringing marginalised groups into the political process is one of the most important aspects of reform.

Token measures will not suffice. The appointment of one female member in Essam Sharif's new cabinet - a holdover from the Mubarak government - is a disservice to the thousands of women who agitated for greater political representation. The formation of a cabinet committee to deal with "women's issues" does not do justice to the economic, social and legislative hurdles that Egyptian women have encountered for decades.

Economic and legislative reform could also help defuse tensions between Copts and Muslims.

Read it all.

If Emiratis petitioned their government for political reforms, how would The National report it?