The Iraq Index :: All Things Conservative

Electricity output is up, successful attacks on the oil sector are down. Direct violence against civilians is up. (Indirect violence being attacks on the infrastructure that improves life.)

Have terrorists changed their preferences, or have they changed their choices of targets due to improved defense of infrastructure? Economists tend to look for changes in behavior induced by changes in incentives rather than changes in preferences. People - economists believe - are less likely to experience a change in heart than they are to face a change in price. As it becomes more costly or less likely to succeed at attacking a power plant or a pipeline you may see less violence, but you are more likely to see a substitution in violence towards other targets.