Saturday, November 17, 2007

Some things you just can not make up

Undercover Economist
John Nye and Charles Moul, two economists at Washington University in St Louis, have now checked some basic macroeconomic statistics using Benford’s Law. They find that OECD statistics fit the law quite well, suggesting that GDP data should follow Benford. But African GDP data do not fit. It is not possible to say whether the anomaly is due to fraud or underfunded statistical offices. But it is a reminder that some data should come with a health warning.
Another thing I learned from this post: Hal Varian is Google's chief economist.

Labels:

3 Comments:

Blogger Acad Ronin said...

Now that's clever forensic economics. My understanding is that accounting firms already use Benford's Law as one tool in detecting fraud.

11:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr Chilton
I am a new investor to the UAE stock markets with holdins in Air Arabia, Dana Gas and Amlak. Can you direct me to some reliable information about these stock markets. I can't get a feel for them. Like for instance they have had very public and wide spread protest amongst their labors yet the stock markets did not reflect this. I realize their may be little transperancy however if you can show me where I can find the pulse THANK YOU Rebecca (formerly in Abu dhabi now in KSA)

1:06 PM  
Blogger sharewadi said...

Hi Rebecca, I'm not Mr Chilton but here are a couple of websites you might find useful - a UAE stocks forum and UAE share information.

I'm not aware of any worker unrest specifically to do with Dana, Amlak, or Air Arabia but there was an Arabtec workers strike in November 2007, which did appear to affect Arabtec shares somewhat.

4:50 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home