Friday, December 05, 2008

Who said it?

"Ten years from now the price of oil will be below $100/barrel."
Emirates Economist - September 2, 2005

I'm a little ahead of schedule.

But, seriously, my prediction had to do with the oil supply elasticity, and with energy supply elasticity in general keeping a lid on prices in the long run. I wasn't making a prediction about where prices would be between 2005 and 2015. Since my prediction in 2005 oil prices have rocketed up and rocketed down.

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3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope you are feeling smug. Well done.

9:27 PM  
Blogger TigerHawk said...

Heh. Something more than a year ago, when oil was around $100, I bet my brother (who has a mild case of the peak oil thingy) that it would trade below $60 before it traded above $140. I lost the bet because of that final spike in July, but my general point was right, which was that we were going to see much lower prices again.

6:59 AM  
Blogger John B. Chilton said...

Yes, TigerHawk, you have to be careful about how you frame predictions. I certainly tried to be.

11:47 PM  

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