Wednesday, February 16, 2011

After Egypt: Who's Next?

You, too, can bet on Topple-the-Leader. Will you help make it a self-fulfilling prophecy? Who's next after Mubarak?

From bigthink, check out the odds of which regime is most likely to fall next. Currently it's Yemen at 15/8.

Here's the odds as posted today (Wednesday) by The Telegraph:
Paddy Power odds – next country to topple leader:
15/8 Yemen
9/4 Jordan
7/2 Algeria
7/2 Morocco
8/1 Bahrain
12/1 Iran
16/1 Libya
16/1 Sudan
16/1 Iraq
20/1 Saudi Arabia
20/1 Syria
Eyeballing these odds it looks like poverty and unemployment increase the odds, and a well organized system of repression lowers them.

Kuwait, Qatar and UAE? Not listed.

You can keep up with the odds at this page at Paddy Power.



Blogger Seabee said...

If I was a betting man I'd probably put it on the favourite Yemen.

I'd have a second bet on major changes in Bahrain too - not the monarchy going but major changes to the make up of the parliament.

9:05 AM  

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