Chris Blattman, human browser

As regular readers will have noted, The Emirates Economist has a new favorite human browser, Chris Blattman. More links today via Blattman:

1. Tackling corruption gets tougher every day. Blattman points to a post at Global Integrity Commons about corruption in Nigeria, and in specific, "a discouraging trend of Nigerian lawmakers declaring greater personal assets than they currently posses in order to build in a cushion that accounts for corrupt gains while in office. ... Official Secrets Acts across many Commonwealth nations are an unfortunate legacy of the British colonial period that provide officials with an easy excuse to withhold information from the public."

2. Love and romance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Blattman points to a series by Katherine Zoepf, writing in The Lede and the New York Times: Out With the Boys for a Night of Numbering ("chasing cars containing young girls and trying to give the girls their phone numbers via Bluetooth, or by holding written phone numbers up to their car windows"); Q&A about love and romance in Saudi Arabia; and Love on Girls’ Side of the Saudi Divide ("A cellphone picture of Alia’s fiancé — a 25-year-old military man named Badr — was passed around, and the girls began pestering Alia for the details of her showfa. A showfa — literally, a “viewing” — usually occurs on the day that a Saudi girl is engaged").

She loves me, she loves me not, she loves me, she loves me not

That would be one way to find out.

The sage Undercover Economist gives helpful advice to the loveworn.

Undercover Economist predicts she does not love you -- that's because he assumes it's likely she can read you like a book. But by using his technique you may be able to save a friendship.

Golden oldie from the Emirates Economist - Valentines Day

[Originally published 14 Feb 2005]

Love triumphs over fear - Yahoo! News

Celebration of the Islamic New Year or the Prophet Mohammad's birthday, common in other Muslim countries, is frowned upon in Saudi Arabia.

Valentine's Day, or the 'Feast of Love' in Arabic, is beyond the pale in a country where women must cover themselves from head to toe in public and be accompanied by a male guardian.

'For the last week, we've had no red in the shop,' said Ahmed, a flower shop manager. 'You can't even have red cards.'

Despite the prohibition, demand for the banned roses has been strong and unofficial business was booming, Ahmed said.

'Wait 10 minutes,' he told one customer as an assistant slipped into the shadows to collect a bouquet of crimson flowers. At 10 riyals ($2.70) each they were double the usual price. 'They would put us in prison for this,' he smiled.

Shortly after I first arrived in the United Arab Emirates I visited the Dubai City Centre mall. What I saw shattered my expectations. I knew that the UAE was not the UAR (United Arab Republic) and I knew the UAE was not Saudi Arabia. (Both are frighteningly common misconceptions of Westerners.) What I was not prepared for on my visit to the mall was a full blown marketing of Valentines Day, and buyers of all kinds engaging in Valentines purchases.

Nationals are a minority in the UAE, as are Arabs. Muslims are in the majority. But there are many Westerners working here as well who brought with them the tradition of Valentines, a celebration of human love, especially of the devotion between spouses. So it is easy, in hindsight to see how Valentines was introduced and transmitted from one culture to another. One has to wonder whether cultural crowding out is a good thing, although you can't condone the Saudi approach of policing Valentines either.

There is a question of where the recent Saudi local elections (for men only) will lead. But even in Saudi Arabia it seems clear that men and women are voting with their pocketbooks in favor of Valentines. And to challenge authority to do so. That's a political act.

One more thing about the marketing of Valentines Day. It is used to be Saint Valentines Day (originating like most Christmas holidays to displace a pagan holiday). Many young Americans may not know that until they've studied the Saint Valentines Day Massacre in 20th century U.S. history. Most stores in the US have found it profitable to replace "Merry Christmas" with "Happy Holidays" in their Christmas ads. (Some Christians have used this as a pretext to pump up outrage that secular values are crowding out the sacred.) I suspect the saint was dropped from Valentines for the same reason -- it converts the celebration into a universal celebration, and broadens its market appeal.

Update: Hindu nationalists burn Valentine’s Day cards, posters in Indian capital. But perfect day for Valentine’s Day lovers in the Emirates.

Spinsterhood, American Style :: CJR Daily

Recently I noted that The New York Times had a copycat article of a Times article on the declining proportion of women who are in the state of matrimony. The NYT article attracted considerable attention in the blogosphere. And the NYT later ran a more substantive article, perhaps responding to criticism of the first article.

Gal Beckerman crystalized the criticism of many:

[T]here is nothing that will turn our faces red faster than a story that lazily slaps together a few anecdotes, buffered by a minor statistic, and then presents itself as important news. Especially when the "trend" masks a much more complex and dark reality.
. . .
The article, to no one's great surprise, hinting as it does at the problems of sex and love, was the number one most emailed today (or as Gawker, in its inimitable style, put it this afternoon, "Also, 91% Of Women Are Now E-Mailing Spinster Article To Their Single Friends.")

Leaving aside what struck us as strange methodology (like the fact that the survey counted anyone over the age of fifteen as a woman), there was something else disturbing about the piece. It had a tone of exuberance that spun the numbers as an unambiguously positive piece of progress for women.
. . .
the Times, of all papers -- having run groundbreaking series on both race and class -- should realize that a phenomenon that might bode well for middle-class white women might be absolutely disastrous for poor black women.

Apparently, though, we are the only ones to see it like this. Because apart from a tossed-off paragraph that reminds us that, buried within these statistics, seventy percent of African-American women are single, there is nothing to indicate how the epidemic of single parentage in the black community contributes to this statistic. We imagine -- though aren't told -- that many of these women are raising children alone and being dragged deeper into poverty because of their unmarried status.

Instead the rest of the article is completely about those middle class white women who insist they have chosen to be without ball and chain.

Here's what marriage looks like from the black American woman's perspective. One thing to keep in mind: all women are making choices, not just white women. And many women are choosing to live without a spouse because they, and any children, are better off that way.

Does size matter? - Economists take a look

Reuters:

They calculated that for every inch taller a man is than his speed-dating rivals, the number of women who want to meet him goes up by about five percent.

Reducing the magical chemistry of love at first sight to a set of complicated equations, researchers Michele Belot and Marco Francesconi analysed the choices made by 1,800 men and 1,800 women at 84 speed-dating events across Britain.

Each hopeful pays about 20 pounds and has just three minutes to convince a possible partner of the opposite sex.

The conclusion of the University of Essex study was blunt and to the point: "Women prefer men who are young and tall, while men are more attracted to women who are young and thin."
. . .
But, in the unforgiving numbers game of love, age is crucial.

Each extra year, in comparison with others in the speed-dating group, reduces a man's chance of finding a partner by four percent. For women it is five percent.
. . .
"We also found that an overweight woman is 16 per cent less likely to receive a proposal from men. Men, on the other hand do not seem to be penalised for being overweight," Belot said.

The survey explodes the myth that blondes always have more fun -- hair colour was not a major issue when speed-dating.

Here's the paper: Can Anyone Be “The” One, Evidence on Mate Selection from Speed Dating.

Here's what Farkers are saying about the study.

Related: Assortative mating may explain growing income inequality in the US.

UPDATE: Via Mankiw comes this - WaPo reports today's men find women with graduate degrees more attractive according to empirical research by economist Elaine Rose.

Security 'bad news for sex drive' :: BBC

The argument is that the female's sex drive is high early in a relationship in order to cement a relationship. Later in the relationship it drops. Here's the argument why:

Dr Dietrich Klusmann, lead author of the study and a psychologist from Hamburg-Eppendorf University, believed the differences were down to human evolution.

He said: "For men, a good reason their sexual motivation to remain constant would be to guard against being cuckolded by another male."

But women, he said, have evolved to have a high sex drive when they are initially in a relationship in order to form a "pair bond" with their partner.

But, once this bond is sealed a woman's sexual appetite declines, he added.

He said animal behaviour studies suggest this could be because females may be diverting their sexual interest towards other men, in order to secure the best combinations of genetic material for their offspring.

Or, he said, this could be because limiting sex may boost their partner's interest in it.

Huh? You've already established the cause of why he's already interested in it.

Then there's an attempt at a supply and demand analogy:

Professor George Fieldman, an evolutionary psychologist from Buckinghamshire Chilterns University College, said: "These findings seem to fit in with anecdotal studies and his explanations seem plausible.

"The rational for why a woman's sex drive declines may be down to supply and demand. If something is in infinite supply, the perceived value would drop."

Hmm. Maybe the idea is if you don't give it way you can sell it for something. Like doing a bit of housecleaning or childcare? Or some tenderness?:

About 90% of women wanted tenderness, regardless of how long they had been in a relationship, but only 25% of men who had been in a relationship for 10 years said they were still seeking tenderness from their partner.

In Why We Love: The Nature and Chemistry of Romantic Love the author, Helen Fisher, writes:

There is a great deal of anecdotal evidence for this negative chemical relationship between attachment and romantic love. People around the world say the exhilaration of romance wanes as their marriage or partnership becomes increasingly stable, comfortable, and secure. Some even go to psychiatrists or marriage counselors to try to renew romantic passion in their relationship. Some seek romance outside their marriage instead. Some divorce. And many settle into a long-term partnership of devoid of romantic bliss.

The Economist as Romantic

Why do love affairs come to an end?
Love affairs come to an end when their price gets too high.

James Hamilton at Econobrowser remarks (my emphasis):

U.S. automakers can't be very pleased about September sales figures.

Automotive News reported today that GM sold 24% fewer light vehicles in September 2005 compared with September 2004, while Ford sold 20% fewer vehicles. SUV's led the retreat, with sales of Explorers, Expeditions, and Mountaineers each down more than 50%. Although Toyota's sales overall were up 10%, their SUV's (4Runner, Highlander, Land Cruiser and Sequoia) were all down as well.

U.S. car sales had been sagging earlier this year. With its summer employee discount program, GM was gambling that American consumers would return to their love affair with big cars, and all that was needed was a strategy to get past a temporary lovers' tiff. That gamble isn't looking so great at the moment. Although car sales temporarily went way up, GM's North American division lost $1.2 billion in the second quarter, and the gas guzzlers that consumers bought earlier this summer may look like albatrosses to them now each time they pull out a C-note to fill 'em up. Without those discounts, sales are falling like a rock.

Stuck with a lot of SUVs in their fleet, U.S. consumers adjust very little even to large increases gas prices (although Econbrowser notes that bike ridership is up). Over time, however, the composition of the private automobile fleet will change as owners trade in SUVs for vehicles with better mileage.

People do respond to incentives. People do make substitutions. And in the long run, the price of gasoline will moderate even if demand from India and China continues to be strong.

Aside: At GM the lights are on but nobody's home, again.

The Heterosexual Revolution :: NYT

Heterosexuals were the upstarts who turned marriage into a voluntary love relationship rather than a mandatory economic and political institution. Heterosexuals were the ones who made procreation voluntary, so that some couples could choose childlessness, and who adopted assisted reproduction so that even couples who could not conceive could become parents. And heterosexuals subverted the long-standing rule that every marriage had to have a husband who played one role in the family and a wife who played a completely different one.
. . .
traditional marriage imposed a strict division of labor by gender and mandated unequal power relations between men and women. "Husband and wife are one," said the law in both England and America, from early medieval days until the late 19th century, "and that one is the husband."

This law of "coverture" was supposed to reflect the command of God and the essential nature of humans. It stipulated that a wife could not enter into legal contracts or own property on her own. In 1863, a New York court warned that giving wives independent property rights would "sow the seeds of perpetual discord," potentially dooming marriage.

Even after coverture had lost its legal force, courts, legislators and the public still cleaved to the belief that marriage required husbands and wives to play totally different domestic roles. In 1958, the New York Court of Appeals rejected a challenge to the traditional legal view that wives (unlike husbands) couldn't sue for loss of the personal services, including housekeeping and the sexual attentions, of their spouses. The judges reasoned that only wives were expected to provide such personal services anyway.

As late as the 1970's, many American states retained "head and master" laws, giving the husband final say over where the family lived and other household decisions. According to the legal definition of marriage, the man was required to support the family, while the woman was obligated to keep house, nurture children, and provide sex. Not until the 1980's did most states criminalize marital rape. Prevailing opinion held that when a bride said, "I do," she was legally committed to say, "I will" for the rest of her married life.
. . .
Stephanie Coontz, the director of public education for the Council on Contemporary Families, is the author of "Marriage, a History: From Obedience to Intimacy, or How Love Conquered Marriage."

Will the Arab and Muslim world prove to be as adaptable?

From Booklist's review of Marriage, a History: "Coontz explores how marriage has evolved, from the introduction of romantic love through modern-day attempts to balance changing sex roles. As society separated marriage from economics, it also made marriage more fragile and subject to the vagaries of emotions. Coontz notes that all of the permutations of marriage that we now consider new and radical have been seen before and that generations throughout history."

(Emphasis added.) Did society separate 'marriage from economics'? Society has very little to do with change except in the degree to which it resists it or accomodates it. It seems to me that technology changed (e.g., running water, electricity, the washing machine) and then marriage changed.

If couples come to agree with Coontz that marriage has become more fragile, and if they view this as a bad thing, they will seek ways to make it less fragile. What these ways will be I can't predict, but humans are innovative when there is an incentive.

To love, honour and overrate - FT
The keys to a long-lasting marriage

This series of new psychological studies suggests the real issue in marriages is not the faults you notice in your spouse and try to point out. Rather they suggest that the best therapy for couples is to encourage more deluded thinking. If you are going to insist on being realistic, then maybe marriage is not for you.

Link via Mahalanobis (he's quoted more of the article).

Coincidently, The Eclectic Econoclast recently shared not unsimilar thoughts on marriage.

In love, but getting married for "technical reasons" - Washington Post

Dear "Confused Catholic,"

Offensive would be to go there and fake it to secure a church wedding -- to treat a house of worship as a party venue.

Fortunately for you -- and, psst, a goodly number of Catholic brides and grooms -- finding your virginity isn't the only way to show respect for your church. Recommitting to it is another option, though apparently not one you're entertaining. Another is to be honest with the priest about your cafeteria-style Catholicism and then defer to his judgment on the appropriateness of your receiving sacraments.

(My emphasis added.) There are endless roll-your-own-church options. But "confused" wants a church wedding even though she doesn't respect the Catholic church. She is confused but she's not alone.

Love triumphs over fear - Yahoo! News

Celebration of the Islamic New Year or the Prophet Mohammad's birthday, common in other Muslim countries, is frowned upon in Saudi Arabia.

Valentine's Day, or the 'Feast of Love' in Arabic, is beyond the pale in a country where women must cover themselves from head to toe in public and be accompanied by a male guardian.

'For the last week, we've had no red in the shop,' said Ahmed, a flower shop manager. 'You can't even have red cards.'

Despite the prohibition, demand for the banned roses has been strong and unofficial business was booming, Ahmed said.

'Wait 10 minutes,' he told one customer as an assistant slipped into the shadows to collect a bouquet of crimson flowers. At 10 riyals ($2.70) each they were double the usual price. 'They would put us in prison for this,' he smiled.

Shortly after I first arrived in the United Arab Emirates I visited the Dubai City Centre mall. What I saw shattered my expectations. I knew that the UAE was not the UAR (United Arab Republic) and I knew the UAE was not Saudi Arabia. (Both are frighteningly common misconceptions of Westerners.) What I was not prepared for on my visit to the mall was a full-blown marketing of Valentines Day, and buyers of all kinds engaging in Valentines purchases.

Nationals are a minority in the UAE, as are Arabs. Muslims are in the majority. But there are many Westerners working here as well who brought with them the tradition of Valentines, a celebration of human love, especially of the devotion between spouses. So it is easy, in hindsight to see how Valentines was introduced and transmitted from one culture to another. One has to wonder whether cultural crowding out is a good thing, although you can't condone the Saudi approach of policing Valentines either.

There is a question of where the recent Saudi local elections (for men only) will lead. But even in Saudi Arabia it seems clear that men and women are voting with their pocketbooks in favor of Valentines. And to challenge authority in order to do so. That's a political act.

One more thing about the marketing of Valentines Day. It is used to be Saint Valentines Day (originating like most Christmas holidays to displace a pagan holiday). Many young Americans may not know that until they've studied the Saint Valentines Day Massacre in 20th century U.S. history. Most stores in the US have found it profitable to replace "Merry Christmas" with "Happy Holidays" in their Christmas ads. (Some Christians have used this as a pretext to pump up outrage that secular values are crowding out the sacred.) I suspect the saint was displaced from Valentines for the same reason -- it converts the celebration into a universal celebration, and broadens its market appeal. So it's back to being a non-religious holiday.

Update: Hindu nationalists burn Valentine’s Day cards, posters in Indian capital. But perfect day for Valentine’s Day lovers in the Emirates.